Evidence packet

The Pour-Over Protocol

Every file the case study draws on, exactly as recorded. The page cites these; this is where they live, so a claim can be checked or the study repeated.

Download all 19 files · 56.2 KB Back to the study

  1. 01_readme.md 10.0 KB
  2. 02_assumption_map.csv 8 rows · 1.1 KB
  3. 03_trace_matrix.csv 6 rows · 1.3 KB
  4. 04_design_outputs.csv 8 rows · 1.8 KB
  5. 04_diary_protocol.md 3.3 KB
  6. 05_observation_protocol.md 4.7 KB
  7. 06_decision_log.csv 10 rows · 1.4 KB
  8. 07_automation_flow.md 6.9 KB
  9. bp_log.csv 8 rows · 665 B
  10. cross_validation_log.csv 26 rows · 2.0 KB
  11. diary_events.csv 172 rows · 13.8 KB
  12. forecast_latest.md 425 B
  13. observation_events.csv 8 rows · 1.3 KB
  14. phase_summary.json 3.4 KB
  15. physician_clearance.md 1001 B
  16. pr_events.csv 0 rows · 92 B
  17. pre_registrations.csv 6 rows · 2.1 KB
  18. velocity_events.csv 0 rows · 79 B
  19. weekly_aggregates.csv 8 rows · 1018 B

01_readme.md

Evidence Packet: Desirable Difficulty Case Study

Version: 1.0
Date: 2024-02-21
Designer: Robert Duebelbeis

Scope

This evidence packet supports the behavioral design case study: "Desirable Difficulty — Behavioral Design for Health Compliance."

Problem: Bob needs to reduce coffee consumption per doctor's orders while on blood pressure medication.

Intervention: Manual pour-over ritual introducing desirable difficulty (skilled friction) to transform habitual consumption.

OEC: Cups per week (primary) with satisfaction ≥4.0 SEQ (guardrail)

Contents

File Description
01_readme.md This file — scope, OEC, version
pre_registrations.csv Append-only hypothesis log (CI-enforced)
02_assumption_map.csv All assumptions with certainty/importance ratings
03_trace_matrix.csv DI ↔ verification method ↔ evidence link ↔ status
04_diary_protocol.md Daily log template, weekly interview guide
05_observation_protocol.md Session recording consent, coding rubric
06_decision_log.csv Timestamped decisions with rationale
07_automation_flow.md iOS Shortcut design: flow diagram, step detail
diary_events.csv 172 coffee_consumption events — a RECONSTRUCTED export, not the original device log (which was not retained). Generated to reproduce every weekly_aggregates column exactly, on nominal 7-day study weeks from 2024-01-06; the study's own week ledger drifted and its printed end date (2024-02-21) precedes the nominal Week 8 — a recorded spread this file does not hide
observation_events.csv 8 observation_session events with behavioral codes
weekly_aggregates.csv Weekly roll-ups for all metrics
phase_summary.json Phase comparisons and effect sizes
cross_validation_log.csv Weekly validation checks (diary vs observation)
velocity_events.csv SLICE/EPIC completion events for velocity tracking
pr_events.csv PR merge events for lead time tracking
bp_log.csv Weekly blood-pressure readings — exploratory only
physician_clearance.md Week 4 continuation clearance (2024-01-27)
forecast_latest.md Monte Carlo forecast with confidence intervals

Study Design

Type: Single-subject ABA (baseline–intervention–washout)

Phase Duration Purpose
A — Baseline Weeks 1–2 Establish ground truth consumption
B — Intervention Weeks 3–6 Test desirable difficulty hypothesis
A — Washout Weeks 7–8 Test habit transfer

Primary Outcome

Metric Baseline Post-Intervention Change
Cups/week 32 18 −44%
Satisfaction (SEQ) 4.0 4.2 +0.2

Falsification Criteria (Defined A Priori)

The hypothesis fails if:

  • Weekly cups do not decrease by ≥20% by Week 4
  • Satisfaction drops below 3.0/5.0 average
  • Participant abandons before Week 6
  • Consumption rebounds to baseline during washout

Result: All criteria passed.

What This Doesn't Prove

Look, n=1 is n=1. I'm not claiming this generalizes. But it does show:

  • The method (daily logging + observation coding) is executable
  • Pre-registration prevents p-hacking myself
  • Effect held through washout (not just novelty)

Things I can't rule out:

  • Hawthorne effect (being observed changes behavior)
  • The BP meds might've helped motivation
  • 8 weeks isn't forever

Notes

Data anonymized for portfolio. Raw video deleted per protocol.

bob@duebelbeiss.com

enesru